Grading Stamp Book Leaflets

The Exceptable Method by

R Gordon Schmidt

The United States Specialist
April 1976, pp 193-6

United States Booklet Pane Scarcity
Originally, Stamp Books and Leaflets
Unique to the Flat Plate Printing Era
1900 to 1923 also 1918 AEF and 1927 Lindy

Written by R Gordon Schmidt, BIA 7962

Interpolated by John P McGowan, BIA 7787
Web Site: www.epopstamps.com
email: usprexy@epopstamps.com

(Concluded from March, 1976)

The 180-Subject Plate
Under the same assumptions used for the 360-subject plate a probability analysis of the 180-subject plate is quite simple in comparison. The total number of leaflets produced is 30 and there are only relatively simple complexes to consider.

The plate produces position A fifteen times, one each of positions B, C, and D, and, eight position E leaflets so that the corresponding probabilities are 0.5 15/30, 0.033 1/30, 0.033, 0.033, and 0.267 8/30 respectively.

The F-G Complex
If a position F leaflet is produced 60% of the time, Assumption II, then a position E leaflet will be produced at position 16 in association with it. If a position G leaflet is produced, then an E leaflet is created at position 15. The total probability for this complex is 0.067 or 2/30, 50% of which is always associated with position E, or 0.033. Sixty percent of the remaining 0.033 probability is associated with positiom F or 0.02 and 40% with position G or 0.013.

The H-I Complex
Identical logic may be applied to the H-I complex so that we have position H probability established at 0.02, position I at 0.013, and position A at 0.033. Position A occurs at position 26 when a position H leaflet is produced and at position 25 when a position I leaflet is produced. That is the total of complex relationships in the 180-subject plate. Table V illustrates the probabilities and their source.

TABLE V
Occurrence Probability by Position
for the 180-Subject Plate

Probability From

Percentages and scarcity factors are presented in Table VI for the 180-subject plate.

TABLE VI
Percentages and Scarcity Factors by
Position for the 180-Subject Plate

Using the production totals for those issues produced by the 180-subject plate and the percentages of each position issued, we can determine the number of leaflets existing by position for those issues. Table VII illustrates these data for Scott 300b, 301c, and 319g.

Scarcity factors and percentages presented thus far work well for those issues which were produced from one type of plate only. But the three issues produced from both plates need separate attention.

Scarcity factors and percentages for the three issues 279Be, 331a, and 332a are easily calculated from the total numbers of each position produced.

Total numbers produced by each plate type for each issue are given in tables VIII, IX, and X, and are based on calculations for the 360-subject plate and the 180-subject plate, as already discussed.

The percentages and scarcity factors for these issues are calculated from ratios of the quantities issued. All total quantity issued figures are from HarriganÕs 1930 work.

TABLE VII
Quantities Issued by Position
for the 180-Subject Plate

TABLE VIII
Total Leaflets Produced, Percentages, and Scarcity Factors
for 279Be by Position and Source

TABLE IX
Total Leaflets Produced, Percentages, and Scarcity Factors
for 331a by Position and Source

TABLE X
Total Leaflets Produced, Percentages, and Scarcity Factors
for 332a by Position and Source

American Expeditionary Force Issues
January 1, 1918
A. E. F. stamp books were produced from the 360-subject plate by special process. Twelve separate positions exist for the 1c green leaflet of 30, 498f. Positions have not been reported on the 499f leaflet. It is rumored that guide lines were not engraved on the plate.

Eight of these positions are identified by the arrow portion of the guideline. Under Assumption I these will occur on every sheet and will account for 8/12 of the total probability.

Positions W3 and W4, W9 and W10, account for the remaining 4/12 probability and create a minor complex. It states that 60% of the leaflets of 30 produced, will be W3 and W9, and 40% will be W4 and W10. Position W3 cannot be distinguished from W9 nor can W4 be told from W10, so they are considered together.

An interesting point is brought up here. Several catalogs do not recognize the positions on which no guideline or arrow markings occur. However, if W3 and W9 are produced, the corresponding leaflets at W4 and W10 are left without markings of any kind, This also holds true for positions W3 and W9 when positions W4 and W10 are created. This paper labels these leaflets NM (no markings).

The total probability of 4/12 associated with these four positions is divided so that half goes to NM, which occurs twice or with a 0.1667 probability. Sixty percent of the remaining 0.1667 ia associated with positions W3 and W9 or 0.10. Positions W4 and W10 then receive a probability of 0.0667. Table XI illustrates the probabilities, percentages, number issued, and scarcity factors for 498f. All known examples of 499f are without markings so that quantities by position are not relevant, although 30,000 leaflets were produced. (Personal communications with Dr. William Bush, 1975.)

TABLE XI
Probability, Percentages, Issued, and Scarcity Factors
for 498f by Position

(*) No Markings.
(**) These positions cannot be distinguished from one another.
NOTE: Data also applicable to 499f, however, all known copies of 499f are NM.

The Lindbergh 180-Subject Plate
The last issue to be considered is the 1928 Lindbergh stamp book leaflet. The 360-subject plate was altered to print 10 cent blue stamps. The result was sheets with 180 horizontal double size stamps which were cut into leaflets of three.

The probabilities for the Lindbergh sheet are identical to the probabilities for the 360-subject sheet with one exception.

The position D does not exist on the Lindbergh plate. In reality the position D leaflet is produced in the form of a position A leaflet. So, by simply adding the probabiluity for a position D to that already established for a position A, we have the associated probabilities for the Lindy plate. Table XII presents the probabilities, percentages, and scarcity data for the Lindy leaflet. The quantity printed estimates used is 291,232 leaflets and is from Bush, 1972.

TABLE XII
Probability, Percent, Issued, and Scarcity factors
by Position for C10a

Before closing, one word should be said explaining the scarcity factor value. The scarcity factor means that more position A leaflets were produced than the position in question. Theoretically it follows that if 100 times as many leaflets of position A were produced than a given position, the value should be approximated by multiplying the value of position A by 100 (the scarcity factor). Taking C10a as an axample, position O has a scarcity factor of 275. Catalogs listed the buy price of F/VF in 1975 as $72.50. The value, using the above proposal, for a position O leaflet becomes $19,937,50. Before balking at this value consider that only 777 were ever produced as opposed to the $5 Columbian which had 27,350 produced and its value was at $900.00 in 1975.

The market is the only true valuation mechanism available. Now, I ask you. What is a poisition A leaflet of the Lindy issue really worth? And how about 279BeS! (Specimen.)

Thanks to Dr. William R Bush, BIA 4898, for providing much of the background material for this article.

REFERENCES
Beans, George H 1913. Booklet Issues of the U. S. EverybodyÕs Philatelist, Vol IV, No. 3. 1913.
Bush, William R 1971. Rotary Booklet Panes---A Plea. The United States Specialist, Vol XLII, No. 5, May, 1`971.
Bush, William R 1972. The Lindbergh Booklet---Quantity Issued. The United States Specialist (a reprint), June 1972.
Harrigan, J C 1930. U. S. Booklet Panes. Unpublished manuscript. 26pp.
Hatcher, James B 1975. Scott Specialized Catalogue of United States Stamps. Scott Publishing Co., New York, 763pp.
McIntire, W A 1940. A Study of U. S. Booklet Panes. Weekly Philatelic Gossip, Bureau Issues Association, June-August, 1940.

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